Coronavirus - update 12.03.2020

I see a lot of misinformation online, so i will just underline and analyse some data.

First, we are in a race against time. A good vaccine, enough tested and highly effective will take at the fastest pace 8-12 months. There are other ideas such as using RNA or DNA based vaccines, but if history is teaching us something, they already tried to do similar ones for Zika and Ebola, without success. Some companies are trying to skip the 'test on animals' steps and start to test straight on humans. The most promising one needed 58 volunteers between age  18-55 for the program, paid up to 1100 $ for this. Got around 1000 volunteers. This will come with a price (unknown side effects).
A realistic date for a fully working vaccine is May 2021.

Second, the strategy a country use to prevent or delay the spreading may be different from one country to another. They can choose an economic solution (money and economy first), a popular solution (people first) or choose to ignore the threat (kind of like every country did at the beginning, the measures taken these days were supposed to be done after 24th of January to be effective). Active measures against pandemic diseases do not work when you already have more that sick 1000 people. Some professionals tends to be more alarmist, saying that measures taken after you have 2 people already sick will not work (2-3 sick people can infect more than 100 in the next 2 weeks. So, depending on the measures taken, you can have 7,3% deaths (Italy case - 17660 cases and 1266 deaths) versus 0.9 (South Korea - 8086 cases and 72 deaths). We have China with 3.93%, Iran with 4.54% (Iran doesn't have enough medical equipment to respond effectively due to the international sanctions), but we also have Singapore with 200 cases and no death. As per 12.03.2020, the worst affected in Europe are Italy (17660-1266 deaths), France (3661 - 79 deaths), Spain (5232 - 133 deaths), Germany (3675 - 8 deaths) and Switzerland (1121 - 11 deaths). Romania has 64 confirmed cases.

Another aspect that you should know is that the estimate proportion of cases confirmed versus total numbers it may be 1 to 5. So if you have 1000 cases confirmed, most probably you have 5000 people infected.

And, viral shedding for the new mutated strains can be up to 36 days with an average of 20 days, while the official channels suggested 14 days. Another problem to pile on the minus list. (Viral shedding refers to the expulsion and release of virus progeny following successful reproduction during a host-cell infection. Once replication has been completed and the host cell is exhausted of all resources in making viral progeny, the viruses may begin to leave the cell by several methods.)

I hope this helps. I will add some links for the live update on the countries where i got friends, i hope it will help track it better.

UK - https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

ITALY - http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/media-comunicazione/comunicati-stampa/-/content-view/view/1226619

FRANCE - https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/direct-coronavirus-covid-19-france-etats-unis-donald-trump-carte-cas-mort-symptomes-emmanuel-macron-italie-espagne/

SPAIN - https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200314/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml

ROMANIA - http://www.ms.ro/2020/03/13/5-noi-cazuri-de-imbolnavire-cu-noul-coronavirus/

Ask me and i add other countries link if you need it.

Hope it helps!

G.